The global economy has started 2016 as a very mixed picture. While the US and the UK are continuing to enjoy relatively strong growth, elsewhere economic performance has been less robust. The low oil price has had a dampening effect on parts of the Middle East and other oil-dominated regions of the world. The BRICS economies have faltered and, in some cases, moved into recession. China’s growth, although still strong, is clearly slowing down to a more sustainable level. Russia is battling the twin challenges of a low oil price and sanctions, while Brazil is facing a range of serious issues. India recorded strong economic growth in the latter part of 2015, but urgently needs to adopt economic reforms if this is to continue. Overlaying all of this, a divergence in international monetary policy has begun to emerge. Questions to be discussed at this panel include:

• What is the outlook for the global economy and emerging markets in particular?
• How will the world cope with a strengthening dollar in 2016 and beyond?
• How and when will monetary policy elsewhere return to normal?
• What are the prospects for the price of oil and other commodities in 2016?
• How will geopolitical developments affect global recovery in 2016 and beyond?
• Which countries are going to be the economic powerhouses of the future?
  
  

Moderator:
Francine Lacqua, Anchor and Editor-at-Large, Bloomberg TV

– Would Leaving the European Union Benefit or Damage the City of London and the UK's Financial Services Sector?

When voters enter the ballot box to cast their votes on whether the UK should leave the European Union, they will also be defining the future of the UK’s financial sector for many decades to come. If they should vote to leave, the key question is how easily would UK financial services companies be able to access the European market? On the other hand, would leaving give the City a competitive edge in offering its services to the emerging growth markets of Asia, Africa and the Middle East? While the precise wording of the motion is yet to be decided, the debate will try to answer the following questions:

• What access would the UK have to the European market if it leaves? Are the Swiss and Norwegian models instructive in this regard? How would it counter the loss of EU ‘passporting’ rights?
• To what extent would the UK be more competitive if it left the EU? Would it really be unfettered by EU regulation or would it have to accept EU regulation to some degree in order to have access to the European market? 
• If its competitiveness was improved by leaving, would this more than compensate for possible loss of access to the European market? What is the potential for a UK no longer constrained by EU regulation in the growth markets of the future? 
• How would global and international financial services companies based in the City react to the UK’s departure?
• What are the prospects for the UK agreeing advantageous bi-lateral trade agreements with other countries after BREXIT?   
• What impact would leaving have on recruitment of talented staff?

-  How Well Do the Pieces of the Global Post-Financial Crisis Regulatory Settlement Fit Together?

The torrent of regulatory reform seen since 2007 has left financial firms navigating an increasingly complex regulatory environment. The multitude of different rules coming from different bodies, often with differing priorities, has caused many to question how they can balance meeting the shifting expectations of regulators with remaining profitable and best able to serve customers. With the rules of different bodies appearing at times to be contradictory and international rules being interpreted differently by national supervisors, questions of how the rules fit together, whether an unlevel playing field is being created and what this means in today’s global world, where increasingly transactions happen and firms operate across borders, continue to be asked. The panel will discuss:

• Has the joint impact of post-2007 regulatory reforms been considered? Can it be assessed?
• Is the current wave of regulatory reform best serving the goal of increasing financial stability? 
• What can be done to harmonise rules between different regulatory bodies and level the playing field?
• Can arbitrage and competitive advantages be avoided?
• What does regulatory reform mean for the future of legacy business models?

Keynote Addresses:
Tracey McDermott, Acting Chief Executive, Financial Conduct Authority
Shunsuke Shirakawa, Deputy Commissioner, International Affairs, Financial Services Agency, Japan & Member of the Basel Committee
Benoît de Juvigny, Secretary General, Autorité des Marchés Financiers

Followed by a panel discussion with leading market practitioners including:
Moderator:
Maciej Piechocki, Partner, BearingPoint 
Panellists:
Clare Woodman, Chief Operating Officer, Institutional Securities Group, Morgan Stanley

From the FCA and PRA in the UK, to the Federal Reserve in the US, APRA in Australia and many more beyond, regulators around the world are making it clear that they will no longer content themselves by assessing a financial institution’s compliance with specific rules, they want to be convinced that it has an appropriate culture and that both its customer-facing and market-facing conduct meet exacting standards. To understand what this shift might mean, the panel will examine:

• Understanding regulatory priorities around conduct, culture and personal accountability
• How can culture be assessed?
• How do you change culture and embed the culture you want across borders, business lines and departments?
• Exploring the role of recruitment processes, incentives, compensation and other measures in motivating the right behaviour

Keynote Address:
Sir Win Bischoff, Chairman, JP Morgan Securities and Chairman, Financial Reporting Council

Moderator:
Mary O' Connor, Global Head of Financial Institutions, Willis Towers Watson 
Panellists:
Nadia Swann, Partner, Linklaters
Ian Johnston, Chief Executive Officer, Dubai Financial Services Authority
Simon Lewis OBE, Chief Executive, Association for Financial Markets in Europe (AFME)
Sir Win Bischoff, Chairman, JP Morgan Securities and Chairman, Financial Reporting Council 

While currency instability and the impact of lower commodity prices in sub-Sahara Africa, and political tensions in the north of the continent, combined to reduce the growth rate to 3.8% in 2015, the prospects for Africa remain bright in the medium to long-term. This prognosis is underpinned by rapid urbanisation, a growing middle-class population, favourable demographics and increasingly business-friendly policies in many African countries. This is reflected in the private equity statistics. Although there was a significant drop in deals closed in 2015 due to the factors listed above, the amount of funds raised by Africa-focused PE funds almost doubled. In other words, there is an expectation of a substantial uptick in the growth trajectory. Topics to be discussed in this panel include:

• How can Africa continue to grow in the face of falling commodity prices and slower growth among trade and investment partners?
• The role of private equity investment in stimulating economic growth
• Prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa in comparison to North Africa  
• Sectoral analysis of where the best investment opportunities lie 

Keynote Address:
James Duddridge MP, Minister for Africa, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, UK

Followed by a panel discussion with 4-5 leading market practitioners including:
Moderator:
Adrian Mayer, Partner, Charles Russell Speechlys 
Panellists:
Mehdi Zehaichi, Business Development, Casablanca Finance City
Nick Luckock, Partner, Head of Financial Services, Actis 
James Duddridge MP, Minister for Africa, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, UK
Washington Kapapiro, Chairman, Association for African Owned Enterprises 

• How are new technologies and new entrants to the market changing the landscape for the financial services industry?
• What are the risks and benefits of digitilisation?
• How can we ensure new technologies increase financial inclusion and drive economic growth?
• How can financial firms innovate in the face of cost constraints and growing regulatory requirements?
• Can traditional financial services firms adapt to the challenge raised by disruptive innovation? Are technology firms going to eat financial firms’ lunch?

The cyber security risks posed by criminals, hacktivists and terrorists have quickly become a major concern for financial firms worldwide. How can these threats be mitigated when cyber space is inherently insecure and the question is not so much if you will be hacked, but when? While technical solutions are undoubtedly an important part of the solution, they are not sufficient on their own; wittingly or unwittingly your people can be pose the biggest risk to information security, and any attempt to manage cyber security must therefore include a cultural aspect as well.

The panel will discuss:

• What threats are out there and what can we learn from previous attacks?  
• How can you ensure each person in your organisation is cyber security aware?
• How can the board and senior executives set the right tone from the top and create a culture of cyber hygiene?
• How can we build a resilient infrastructure so a cyber attack can become an inconvenience, not a catastrophe?
• How can information security risks be minimised in a world of remote working, bring your own device and cloud computing?

Keynote Address:
William Brandon, Chief Information Security Officer, Bank of England
Chris Gibson, Director, CERT-UK

Followed by a panel discussion with leading market practitioners including:
Moderator:
Simon Shooter, Partner, Bird & Bird
Panellists:
Jan Neutze, Director of Cybersecurity Policy, EMEA, Microsoft
Ben Russell, Senior Manager, Partnerships & Transformation, National Cyber Crime Unit
Chris Gibson, Director, CERT-UK